After the Ayeyawady-Chao Praya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) Summit on 11/17/2010 in Phnom Penh, Prime Minister Hun Sen again dismissed all concerns about the impacts of the hydroelectric dams located upstream the Mekong. He asserted that the cycle of floods and droughts was the result of climate change and carbon emissions that had nothing to do with the series of hydroelectric dams in China. (1)

That statement from one of the four powerful national leaders in the Lower Mekong, could not fail but astound the activists and ecological organizations that, for all those years, have shown their commitment to save the fragile and gradually degrading ecology of the Mekong. This article offers an overall view of the situation along with his analysis of Prime Minister Hun Sen‘s recent statement.

MAINLAND CHINA AS DOMINANT FACTOR

In the aftermath of the cold war, China swung open her door to the outside world. With the American predominance receding from Southeast Asia, China becomes the de facto active new player with farreaching influence over the whole of the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Though the region’s major actor, China consistently refuses to join the Mekong River Commission. This country is facing a set of difficult challenges: 1) a dwindling global oil supply, 2) an insatiable thirst for energy source, 3) an immediate need to increase the annual output of electricity from 5 to 6% in order to meet its demand of economic development. Consequently, China is set on its course to develop the abundant potential for hydro-electricity derived from her rivers including the Mekong.

In addition to the construction of the series of 14 dams of the Yunnan Cascades on the Mekong, China is actively building dams in Asia like:

On the Irrawaddy River: Since the end of 2007, Beijing has started the construction of the largest hydroelectric dam, Myitsone, in Myanmar. As reported by the state owned newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar, since May of 2007, the Burmese Government has approved a project to build seven hydroelectric dams on the Irrawaddy River with a combined total estimated output of 13,360 MW. This is a joint venture between the China Power Investment Corporation (CPI) and Burma’s Ministry of Electric Power No. 1.

On the Tibetan High Plateau: All the major rivers in Asia originate from the Tibetan High Plateau. In the East, besides the Yellow and the Yangtze Rivers that flow within the national boundaries of China, one must mention three others: the Mekong, Irrawaddy, and Salween. To the West and Southwest, there are the: Indus, Sutlej and Yarlung Zangpo.

Beijing has confirmed that it will build the first dam on the Yarlung Zangpo or Brahmaputra, also known as the “the highest river in the world”, in the Himalayas. This river brings life sustaining water to millions of Indians. The Chinese experts also disclosed a plan to build 4 more dams in the valley lying between the Sangro and Jiacha districts.

India has expressed its reservations that the planned construction of the Chinese dams will directly impact the flow of the Brahmaputra. This River provides India’s Northeast provinces with the water needed for their agriculture and industries. A senior diplomat of India, Mr. Ananth Krishnan, believes that even though this unchecked building of dams is confined to within the Chinese borders, it would unavoidably cast a dark cloud over China’s relationship with the countries downstream. He went on to make this comparison: “India is just as alarmed about dams on the Yarlung Zangbo as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia are about China’s dams on the Mekong River in Yunnan”.

On his part, the Dalai Lama expressed on many occasions his deep concern about “China’s energy policy”. He maintains that the political solution for Tibet can be relegated to the backburner for 5 to 10 years. Not the ecology issues. He appeals to the international community, including the United States, to focus its attention on the pressing ecological issues that threaten the Tibet High Plateau stemming from China’s programs of deforestation, dam construction, mine exploitation… Some of those issues include: pollution and degradation of the environment. (2)

Commenting on the Chinese plans to exploit the Mekong, Tyson Roberts of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (USA) remarked: “The construction of hydroelectric dams, use of the river as as a navigation channel, and heavy commercial shipping will eventually asphyxiate the Mekong River. The exploitation steps China undertook will result in the degradation of the ecology and catastrophic pollution causing the Mekong to die a gradual death as it is the case with the Yangtze and other big rivers of China”

The Chinese claimed that the water coming from the Lancang Jiang only amounts to 13.5% of the average annual discharge of the Mekong into the East Sea. Therefore, the dams in Yunnan only bear minimal impacts on the rivers downstream. However, according to Milton Osborne who is a respected expert on Southeast Asia and author of many books on the Mekong River: “The Mekong: Turbulent Past, Uncertain Future” and “River Road to China”, the current flow of the Lancang Jiang during the Dry Season at certain sections contributes up to 40% of the Mekong’s water capacity – about three times the figures of 13.5% cited by China”.

Prime Minister Hun Sen has more than once simply echoes and reinforces the Chinese pro-dam position to mislead the public, that the detrimental impacts of the series of dams in the Yunnan Cascades are non-existent.

THE THIRD POLE AND GLOBAL WARMING

The ice cap in the Himalayas ranks third in size after the North and South Poles. For that reason, people sometimes refer to it as the Third Pole. Lonnie Thompson, glaciologist at Ohio State University, calls this ice cap: “Asia’s freshwater bank account” because “it is a lockbox of snow and glacial ice that supplies fresh water to nearly a third of world’s people”. (3)

The World Wide Fund warns that, due to global warming, the ice cap on the Himalayas may shrink at the rapid rate of 10 to 15 meters per year. Consequently, hundreds of millions of people that depend on the water coming from rivers that receive their water from this ice cap may experience water shortage.

In the immediate short term, the river flow will sharply increase on account of the fast melting down of the ice cap. But as explained by Jennifer Morgan, Director of Nature’s Global Climate Change Programme, the situation will reverse itself in the following few decades. The ice cap that feeds water to the seven major rivers in Asia, including the Mekong, will eventually be exhausted resulting in dangerously low water levels in all those rivers.

The Mekong receives its water from upstream. When a water shortage occurs, it is reasonable to expect that any water coming from the Tibetan High Plateau will be retained in the series of dams of the Yunnan Cascades. In such an event, a water penury afflicting the river sections downstream would appear all but unavoidable.

GREAT LAKE AS A BEATING HEART OF CAMBODIA

It is common knowledge that the “Heart” of the Tonle Sap Lake can only beat when the Mekong River reverses its course during the Rainy Season. This phenomenon is a natural wonder peculiar to Cambodia. During the Dry Season the lake dries up and measures only 2,500 km2. However, with the start of the Rainy Season, lasting from May to September, the water level of the Mekong rises forcing the Tonle Sap River to reverse its course and flow into the Tonle Sap Lake causing its water level to swell from 8 to 10 meters and overflow its banks. Consequently, the lake’s area expands to almost five times its size or to 12,000 km2.

The flooded forests of the Tonle Sap Lake se rve as the breeding grounds that supply Cambodia with an enormous quantity of food. It consists mainly of fish that accounts for 60% of the fish consumed in the country. The Mekong River and Tonle Sap Lake are the birthplace of the ancient as well as modern Khmer civilization. Regrettably, the survival of the Tonle Sap Lake itself is in doubt when nefarious impacts began to be felt with the construction of the dams in Yunnan.