Practicing Sustainable Development or Expanding Market and Imposing Global Influence
Pham Phan Long
Viet Ecology Foundation
April 24, 2016
The Formation of Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Framework
According to the China Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, The Sanya Declaration of the First Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Leaders' Meeting was signedby heads of State of the Kingdom of Cambodia, the People's Republic of China, Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, the Kingdom of Thailand, and the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam in Sanya, China on March 23, 2016.
Sanya Declaration of the First Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Leaders' Meeting
Until a few days ago, the Sanya Declaration could only be found on the China Ministry of Foreign Affairs website above. I Googled it and the full text of this document was not disclosed in any other LMC countries. I decided to report about this to the Vietnamese via Vietnamese media in Vietnam and in the US. My analysis of China’s strategy in this cooperation framework below has shocked them.
I assume China must be proud of the LMC, since they chose to inform the Chinese people about it, but the other five governments did not feel the need to inform, seek any input or report the details of such an important international event to their people. The whole process was conduted in in secrecy and is therefore undemocratic. That secrecy drives me to review what it is about the Sanya Declaration that induced them to sign it and why they did not feel comfortable sharing it.
The Principle of Cooperation
Here is what I found in the text of the Declaration:
“LMC will be based on the principles of consensus, equality, mutual consultation and coordination, voluntarism, common contribution and shared benefits, and respect for the United Nations Charter and international laws;”
Comment:
The above principles are noble but there is no mention of principle of equality among member nations. There is little comfort for, say Cambodia or Laos in facing China when Laos ad received $US 300 million in aid and $US7 billion in investment. CB received $US 2.8 billion in aids and $US 9.17 in investments from China. Note that aid from China has no strings attached and investments by China have no competitive bidding, very little transparency or accountability.
Cooperation based on the principle of volunteerism means no one is bound to any obligation. A volunteering cooperation between Vietnam and China, between Cambodia and Vietnam, or Cambodia and Thailand are very unlikely considering recent conflicts still too soon to forget. Billions of dollars of contracts are attractive but that alone will not magically erase the existing conflicts and can buy out new conflicts inherent the new LMC projects. Conflict if can be hidden and negotiate between the governments, it certainly will explode between the people and the people and their governments.
Citing “respect for the United Nations Charter and international laws” sounds good too, but what international laws they are referring too? If all international laws then among the six LMC member countries, only Vietnam has signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses or the 1997 NY Convention. The other five members have not signed and therefore are not bound by it.
China has steadfastly refused to join the Mekong River Commission. China refuses to sign the UN 1997 NY Convention and is free to build all the dams they please in Yunnan. Now all that the major Chinese hydropower projects are complete, China is happy to talk about “mutual consultation and coordination”, something we have never heard from them before.
Interestingly, Premier Li was quoted to say to the LMC:
When gentle breezes stick together, they can have the power of a typhoon.
That is exactly what the inhabitants of the Mekong Basin people are afraid their governments are doing behind their back, with the dams looming over their heads.
Point 10: Lancang Mekong Cooperation Center
Enhance cooperation among LMC countries in sustainable water resources management and utilization through activities such as the establishment of a center in China for Lancang-Mekong water resources cooperation to serve as a platform for LMC countries to strengthen comprehensive cooperation in technical exchanges, capacity building, drought and flood management, data and information sharing, conducting joint research and analysis related to Lancang-Mekong river resources;
Comment
It is not conceivable that equality and freedom is possible among the nations members when the LMC Center is to be located in China and th operating cost is paid for in full or in large part by China. At this Center, China will control the data, the analyses, and the final conclusions as well as decisions for any LMC project. This Center will be a chess board designed to entrap smaller and less informed members into contracts that favor and fit China’s grand plan for them.
Lets’ check China’s promises in the past per the China Daily issue 7 September, 2012:
According to “Ma Hongqi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. So the hydropower development on the upper reaches has very limited impact on the water flow downstream.
"Meanwhile, the dam stores water during the flood season and releases it during the dryseason, which could help ease both flooding and drought in the countries downstream, Ma said.”The same promise was repeated for every Yunnan dam, but since 1995, since the Manwan project was launched, not once has China had come to the rescue of the Lower Mekong Basin. More blatantly, when in flood and drought, the Mekong River Commission was looking for information as to what was happening upstream, the formerly confident China suddenly stopped sharing its data flow from Jinghong with the MRC. Such behavior undermines international trust and put plant the seeds for more suspicion to grow among the neighbors with China in the future.
The MRC water level data shows at Chiang Saen station, where the Lancang empties into the Mekong, water level there from November 1, 2015 to Jan 15, 2016 has been at its lowest in than the 90 years. Why did China let this happen for that long into the dry season and ironically on the verge of the LMC summit they hosted? I can only suspect that China meant to send a warning signal to the Lower Mekong countries that they now possess a weapon of mass environmental destruction and can help or attack at will. Making the point even more unmistakable, after the request from Vietnam to help, China increased the flow back up only slightly; the water level at Chiang Saen remains below last year’s level.
A scientific report to MRC stated that 77% of sediment had been trapped by the Yunnan dams, in monsoon season. By design and operation, they hold up 50 billion cubic meters of water annually, denying the Tonle Sap Great Lake of Cambodia and the Delta of Vietnam the beneficial floods they need for their food security and water security. They may promise an increased discharge in dry seasons, but reservoir filling as usual in the monsoon season ahead of a severely dry season and continuing to fill two months into the dry season to reach a full 30 billion cubic meters’ capacity, denying the Tone Sap Lake 37% of its capacity, is clearly an act of unannounced environmental aggression against 10 million Cambodians. Furthermore, that water, stored in Cambodia, is what 20 million Vietnamese people need in the dry season for their delta to survive.
China has never been a reliable or trustworthy international partner. China now promises the LMC they will cooperate, share information and data, address flood and drought issues and conduct studies on water resources in the Lancang Mekong. The Mekong countries must express their strong reservations and ask themselves if they can trust China again, despite all the lessons they had learned and from the basis of a non-binding declaration and its principle of “volunteerism.”
Point 14: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
Support efficient operation of AIIB as members of AIIB and seek support from AIIB in addressing the financing gap in infrastructure development;
Comment
China made their intentions clear with the above statement that the LMC is established to bring all the infrastructure projects in the Lancang Mekong basin under the umbrella and control of the giant AIIB. AIIB has a stranglehold on the market and have all the smaller players under the stewardship.
LMC will provide a thin veil to cover China’s intention to compete against other traditional financial institutions like WB, ADB, GMA, JICA or ABRD. China may very well succeed with the LMC, as unlike them, LMC does not contain tough requirements,such as environmental assessment, public participation, accountability, transparency, competitive bidding or anti-corruption. They are tough barriers to overcome for special interests and “needless inconvenience” for undemocratic regimes.
LMC is in fact a strategic move within China’s grand scheme, “One Belt, One Road,” which includes the 21st Century Economic Belt all the way from Asia to Africa and Europe, and the Maritime Silk Road to the South Pacific. This an extremely ambitious program envisioned by President Xi and he has doubled down with infusions of US$100 billion in AIIB and US$40 billion in the Silk Road Fund.
LMC is China’s direct response to the US Lower Mekong Initiative, like AIBB is to the World Bank and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) FTA is to the Transpacific Partnership. The Mekong nations have found themselves at the center of the conflict between China and other superpowers. Profits from these games will be shared among special interests and the leadership political party but all the risks, costs, and impacts will be paid by the Mekong people for generations to come.
Point 15: Sustainable development, green and clean energy
Encourage sustainable and green development, enhance environmental protection and natural resources management; develop and utilize sustainably and efficiently clean energy sources, develop regional power market, and enhance exchange and transfer of clean energy technologies;
Comment
The above statement is full of jargon that echoes the modern thinking on development that LMC uses to promote their organization to the basin. The fact is China is behind Mega First Behard Corporation to help Laos with unilateral action in building the Don Sahong dam has been exposed. This project has been projected by international experts not to meet any of the above principles. Chinese workers have occupied the dam site and barricaded it from local residents and visitors. China is also behind three other mainstream projects in Laos and 19 others on the tributaries of the Mekong there.
Thailand, too, had invested in the Jing Hong dam in Yunnan, invested and is constructing the Xayaburi Dam in Laos breaking the LMB mainstream up against opposition by Cambodia and Vietnam.
There are just three truly green energy sources: solar, wind and tidal wave. Hydropower is far from being green, and no way being clean. Hydropower begins with clearing virgin forest, permanent inundation of valleys, blocking migratory fish, upsetting river hydrology and permanent damage to fragile ecosystems.
Conclusion
Since 1995, China stayed out of the 1995 Mekong River Agreement and refused to ratify the UN 1997 NY Convention to avoid any obligation or responsivity to the lower Mekong basin. China is thus free to complete all the major dams in Yunnan and ignore any complaints from the Mekong countries.
Now the geopolitics and hydropolitics on the Lancang Mekong basin have changed. On the one hand, China financed and provided political cover for Laos to unilaterally construct the dams on the Mekong in its territory. Cambodia and Vietnam could not stop Laos. On the other hand, no Mekong country can voice a complaint against Chinese dams for violating any principles, voluntarily or not, as they are all done deals. Having the superior geopolitical, hydropolitical and enormous economic advantages, China’s foreign cash reserve is 14 times bigger than all the other members’ combined.
The Sanya Declaration has less legal value than the Declaration of Conduct ASEAN signed for the South China Sea, and even far less value than a Code of Conduct ASEAN still has not reached and no international legal value compared to the infamous 1995 Mekong River Agreement. Members are not required to agree to anything, they do not really have to bear any responsibility, and most importantly there is no provision for how to resolve conflict.
China will, though the AIIB, provide aid and funds, and tie smaller members to them via big debts. China will build infrastructure throughout Lancang Mekong basin to complete a piece of the puzzle that Xi Jinping has masterminded for the world. China will bring a new normal to South and Southeast Asia by making the Mekong countries their new economic vassal states. China will export their unsustainable development technologies, and spread “Made in China” goods and products over the poor region.
Recommendation
China had rushed the LMC countries into signing as many 78 contracts in an “early harvest” program at the inception of the LMC in their first meeting after the LMC countries were bound together by a loosely drafted language of the Sanya Declaration. The smaller countries are vulnerable and completely unprotected. The only sure thing is that they will become captured borrowers obligated to repay the loans and obligated to use Chinese technologies and products, thus staying within Chinese influence.
The LMC should have been a solemnly signed international river treaty drafted according to the UN Laws on Treaties or a Lancang Mekong Treaty (LMT) put forth by the Viet Ecology Foundation in 2011. The VEF team proposed that a Lancang Mekong Initiative be launched and the Lancang Mekong Treaty that follows the principles of the UN 1997 NY Convention be signed. The 1997 Convention has been drafted not on the principle of volunteerism, but squarely on the obligation “not to cause significant harm to other States” and the principle of “equitable and reasonable utilization and participation”. These are necessary principles LMC projects must conform to by all countries; without them, regret and conflict will result and a water war may not be preventable.